The real reason for the US South China Sea provocation

On July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a pre-arranged declaration supporting some Philippines claims against China in the South China Sea – despite such a declaration being clearly contrary to international law. Almost simultaneously last week the U.S. announced that it would deploy the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea.…

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A damaging confusion in Western economics books

Economics textbooks, particularly when discussing Keynes, frequently contain an elementary economic confusion – it should be made explicit this is a confusion in the textbooks and is not stated by Keynes. A typical example may be taken as Mankiw’s Principles of Economics, but numerous other examples could be cited as the confusion is widespread.1 This…

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China lacks innovation? Take another look

​Until recently, the big myth about China’s companies was their lack of innovation. That view is now being reassessed in a series of Western studies analyzing rapid innovation by China’s firms. Ming Zeng’s and Peter Williamson’s Dragons at Your Door, Dan Breznitz’s and Michael Murphree’s Run of the Red Queen, Vijay Govendarajan’s and Chris Trimble’s…

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The damaging blind alley of US protectionism

​The damaging blind alley of US protectionismThe following article deals with the costs to the US economy of protectionism. The specific case it deals with is protectionism in relation to China. However the arguments apply to all strategies based on protectionism. ​*   *   * Steve Bannon Steve Bannon, President Trump’s Chief Strategist, rightly identified the…

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Why China won’t suffer a Western type financial crisis

Inaccurate articles sometimes appear claiming China faces a “severe debt crisis.” Factually these are easily refuted. Changyong Rhee, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department director, pointed out that China’s national and local government debt is only 53% of its GDP, compared to U.S. government debt which is roughly as big as GDP, or in Japan…

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Why do Western economies have hard landings but China doesn’t?

​IntroductionThe media outside China periodically carries predictions of a China ‘hard landing’. For example George Soros grabbed headlines earlier this year by declaring of China: ‘A hard landing is practically unavoidable.’ Soros himself has an inaccurate record of investing in Communist Party led, and ex-Communist, countries such as Russia and China – having lost approximately…

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A ‘must read’ article on current China-India disputes

Prem Shankar Jha is a leading Indian journalist, columnist and former editor of the Hindustan Times, New Delhi. He has published an outstanding analysis of current dangerous China-India disputes, which centre on Bhutan, written from an Indian perspective ‘India-China: Differences, disputes and deadlock’. The whole article is a ‘must read’ but a few excerpts are…

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Why the US remains locked in slow growth

SummaryThe latest US economic data confirms the US remains locked in a prolonged period of slow growth with major consequences for geopolitics and destabilising consequences for US domestic politics. The latest US economic growth dataAlmost no international issue is more crucial for economic and geopolitical strategy than economic trends within the US. It is therefore crucial…

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